GhostOfSarcasticBtrd: Guessing Game: Trump will win x% of the black vote

GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	Got my bragging rights locked on 12%. Orange boi going big.
StarlessCore 09.21.16	doesnt matter hil won
ArsMoriendi 09.21.16	Idk 2% works
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	Some polls had him at like 1% but I call BS on that.
MercuryToHell 09.21.16	I'm gonna say a nice rounded 5%
MyNameIsPencil 09.21.16	let's go with 6%
BenThatsMyJamin 09.21.16	4% but reckon he'll actually win a decent amount of latino votes
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	"reckon he'll actually win a decent amount of latino votes" scratches head
Futures 09.21.16	8%
laughingman22 09.21.16	2% with a 2% margin of error
TheGreatQ 09.21.16	18%
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	NO MARGINS.
LotusFlower 09.21.16	5% of the vote.
FullOfSounds 09.21.16	3%
Judio! 09.21.16	9.5%
BenThatsMyJamin 09.21.16	"scratches head" I know its a long shot and counterintuitive but the latinos4trump movement is ever-growing and a lot of legal immigrants rly hate illegal immigration. That and contrarianism is the order of the day in politics rn
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	I've decided to allow .5 increments. Nothing smaller.
TVC15 09.21.16	Trump has, give or take, 10% support from the black community at the moment (stat given by a few politic obssessed friends) so I'd say 7%
BenThatsMyJamin 09.21.16	go on then i'll say 4.5
beefshoes 09.21.16	100% probably
Drifter 09.21.16	13%
Funeralopolis 09.21.16	6.5%
macman76 09.21.16	Y'all realize that demographics of election are estimated with exit polls that have margins of error in the lower mid-single digits % range? That said, I'll take 0.5%
LotusFlower 09.21.16	no. i didnt know that macman. i dont know anything about graph data ever.
DoofusWainwright 09.21.16	Numbers are like a pair of big juicy titties to macman
grannypantys 09.21.16	i've seen some polls lately that say close to 20% so I'll go with that
50iL 09.21.16	4% for me
NeroCorleone80 09.21.16	Gonna go with 4%
Snake. 09.21.16	less than 1% bruh last time i checked the polls, johnson and stein had a higher approval rating over trump
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	No less thans.
Snake. 09.21.16	okay fineeeeee 0.8%
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	Only .5 increments.
chemicalmarriage 09.21.16	Uncle Ruckus would vote for Trump
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	I'm bullish on his chances both in the general overall and the black vote. I'd love to be proven wrong though cause he's an utter piece of shit.
AlexKzillion 09.21.16	7.74%
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	No.
Snake. 09.21.16	okay but why tho
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	Because I'm a list nazi. Or do you mean why am I bullish? B/c of a number of factors that have been explained in some detail on 538 (Silver has him at like 44% for winning the election). Go read over there if you want but I'm not gonna make this thread anything other than numbers.
AlexKzillion 09.21.16	Fine 7.7%
macman76 09.21.16	i don't think 538 has published demographic predictions
Snake. 09.21.16	but only .5 increments
AlexKzillion 09.21.16	Tf 7.5%
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	"i don't think 538 has published demographic predictions" - I've read a few pieces there about shifts; they don't have predictions but have noted trends. Go through their archives there's a number of them.
DominionMM1 09.21.16	3.5
macman76 09.21.16	I read it everyday (shocking!!!). I don't recall a piece suggesting that blacks may vote more for trump than past republican candidates.
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	I was referring to the general part, not blacks ("I'm bullish on his chances both in the general overall"). They've done trends on demographics too but I don't recall blacks off hand. But stuff like high school educated whites and such which makes me think Trump's gonna score big in Nov.
Futures 09.21.16	he should get a bump at least from hillary being a piece of shit tbh
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	My 12% is conservative I think (considering Bush got 11% in '04) but most here seem to think he's gonna crash and burn. He will with the Hispanic vote, tho. Well, except Cubans. They're probably still for him over Hil.
Futures 09.21.16	2008 and 2012 numbers are irrelvent because the repub was going against a black guy.
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	"6% in 2012 cause he's about that life but still against a (half) black dude."
Sinternet 09.21.16	0%
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	More than percentage of the vote what will hurt Hil is the lack of turnout. Even if she got a higher percent than him (HIGHLY unlikely) turnout is expected to be very down so it will not work in her favor either way.
Futures 09.21.16	yeah lol
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	Sinternet I respect the balls to the wall approach.
Snide 09.21.16	Bernie Sanders is basically the #2 reason that (bar Hillary's shitty illegal actions) that Hillary will have a low voter turnout. After he lost, his voters felt super disenfranchised, especially after they heard he got a payout from the Clinton Foundation.
macman76 09.21.16	what we will have entirely accurate numbers for is popular vote or electoral count, demographic voting data is not exact (I.e 6% could reasonably mean 3% to 9%). Better list would be to guess the popular vote margin or electoral college margin.
Futures 09.21.16	mac dude nobody cares
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	That's not as fun though.
Storm In A Teacup 09.21.16	1.5% and that is generous. Bush ran against Gore and got 4% and you can't count Bill Clinton's SUPPOSED influence among the black community because Clinton went against Gore in the primary and didn't even endorse him.
macman76 09.21.16	But your name implies predictions and is totally not a reference to JEW
Jasdevi087 09.21.16	26%
Sinternet 09.21.16	my 0% guess is optimistic on trump's part
Storm In A Teacup 09.21.16	@mac we must have posted within .1 seconds holy shit lol your comment is already below mine
Futures 09.21.16	true lol mac
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	Storm he got 8% against Gore.
CaimanJesus 09.21.16	27%
macman76 09.21.16	@storm I have a need a need for
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	Creed?
Storm In A Teacup 09.21.16	shit my bad but I'll stick with 1.5 lol. it's been a horrible day and i'm all mixed up. woke up to a phone call that my car was illegally towed by my apartment complex. had to tell them my attorney will call your attorney in 60 minutes if they didn't pay for 100% of the costs. 61 minutes later I got a phone call with the money and an apology.
Storm In A Teacup 09.21.16	speed!
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	I don't like when people bump old threads. I'm not mad at you I just don't like it.
Storm In A Teacup 09.21.16	are you embarrassed that you asked about girls on sputnik? teehee
AmericanFlagAsh 09.21.16	2.5%
Futures 09.21.16	people letting their bias show itt
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	No I stand by all my archived shit on here 100% (especially the Drake bashing) I just hate bumping.
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.21.16	Yeah there's no way he's getting < 5%
Storm In A Teacup 09.21.16	haha I was just joshing you! lol I think it stands an AMAZING chance for everyone but Trump to do BIG BIG numbers in the MY AFRICAN AMERICAN community. They know that this country is a MESS, they know.
Futures 09.21.16	obviously unbiased
Snide 09.22.16	I think he's gonna get about 9 or 10% of the vote
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.22.16	Pick one and I'll put you on the list. Or split and go for 9.5%.
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	it wasn't biased or unbiased futures when it is just joking around
Futures 09.22.16	lol
Snide 09.22.16	9.5% it is.
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	I'm pretty sure voting for someone who says disparaging things about minorities is more of a vote killer than just a black man running. Obama wasn't the first black person to run for president. What he said out of his mouth got him the votes. So my 1.5% guess is actually a good guess and not biased. If I was being biased I would say he's going to get 0.5% of their vote, which is not impossible.
Futures 09.22.16	lmao
Masochist 09.22.16	I'mma say realistically, 2.5% of our vote. For comparison: Since 1992, Bob Dole is the Republican who got the highest percentage of the Black Vote in his election, with 12%. John McCain is actually the lowest percent in that time period. I don't think Trump stands a chance with Black people, but he'll get a couple just for being the Republican candidate.
Futures 09.22.16	mccain was running against a black guy tho and he got 4%. so how is trump going to get lower?
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.22.16	Storm do you wanna set up a real $$$ bet on that?
Futures 09.22.16	yeah i would bet money he gets above 5%
ashcrash9 09.22.16	2.8%
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.22.16	I mean I'm sure we could set up a real wager if he's that confident. I'll bet as high as he wants.
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.22.16	"2.8%" READ THE RULES!
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.22.16	"2.5% of our vote" - You black? Does Key have a friend?
baldymort 09.22.16	20%
zaruyache 09.22.16	There are some polls that show he's increasing the number of [southern] African Americans that may vote for him. But given that all these polls only actually poll a few thousand people (if that), I can't really give them much weight in regards to the nation as a whole. Trump might definitely be a demographic wildcard this time around, even with Obama campaigning for Clinton. I'd like the put him lower than McCain, buuuuuuut maybe 7%?
ashcrash9 09.22.16	"READ THE RULES!" put it in the description then? I'm sure I'm not the only one who doesn't trudge through every comment in a list like this
AngryJohnny 09.22.16	Not super knowledgeable about US politics but aren't the Clintons super popular in the black community? They certainly favoured Hilary strongly over Bernie in the primaries. Anything above 5% seems way optimistic to me
AngryJohnny 09.22.16	Gonna go 4%
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	@ghost- hell no, I already wonder almost every day how I'm going to eat. usually I have to hope that someone needs bud so I can make $5 or $10 to eat for the day
zaruyache 09.22.16	Well Obama's actually black and he lost 4-6% of the black vote, so I cannot feasibly see a white person getting any more than that. Even if for the next two months Bill just rode around cities on top of a bus wearing cool sunglasses and playing sweet jazz on his saxophone.
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	literally all comments itt come with the pretense that people are going to vote completely based on color and not issues
Futures 09.22.16	no but saying that he will get less than mccain who went up against a black guy is dumb and nonsensical
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	and thinking that is the only factor that significantly matters is dumb and nonsensical. you're completely ignoring the Donald Trump factor and what he has done.
Futures 09.22.16	you're ignoring he is going up against hillary clinton lmao
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	I'm not talking about how much Hillary is going to get. There are 4 people running who all 4 have received attention no matter how little on every major broadcast station and in other media. If you are actually going to vote and you are under 40 there's a huge likelihood you know at least 3 people you can vote for when you include Johnson. I bet Johnson goes toe to toe with Trump on the black vote.
Futures 09.22.16	also 100% guarantee johnson beats trump in the latino vote
zaruyache 09.22.16	Oh right, I totally forgot about him. I don't think he's gotten enough attention on a national scale to really do that much, but he could maybe knock Trump down what, maybe 1%? I mean we're talking about the small statistical faction of Black America that actually votes Right, and that's like splitting hairs already.
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	zaru I said 1.5% but they think I'm being biased.
Kronzo 09.22.16	put me down for 5.5%
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwG5nHwQvFA
Conmaniac 09.22.16	3.25% seems about right
Futures 09.22.16	he was going against a black guy
evilford 09.22.16	lol this list
Storm In A Teacup 09.22.16	if running against a black guy gets you less "black votes" than insulting people of color then I will shaking my head the rest of my life, but there is no way to produce a controlled test because Hillary Clinton is horrible compared to a 2008 or 2012 Obama.
RadicalEd 09.22.16	10%. For some reason the black community fucking loves the Clintons.
Wolfhorde 09.22.16	To quote philosophers of a lost age: In the end it doesn't even matter.
magicuba 09.23.16	11%
claygurnz 09.23.16	'To quote philosophers of a lost age: In the end it doesn't even matter' Ahh Bennington, I referenced his works many a time in my thesis
guitarded_chuck 09.23.16	4.2%
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.23.16	List updated (and rules clarified in description).
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.23.16	"lol this list" Feel like the album picks were underappreciated haha. "also 100% guarantee johnson beats trump in the latino vote" Now who's being biased? "if running against a black guy gets you less "black votes" than insulting people of color" It does.
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 09.23.16	Also deadline for bets and changing bets is the day before the first debate. Afterwards list is locked till the election.
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 11.09.16	Welp: https://twitter.com/ByronTau/status/796232299683737600 Damn it feels good to be a gangsta.
AlexKzillion 11.09.16	So who won this?
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 11.09.16	Myself, Drifter, and Magic are the closest. Not final, tho.
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 11.09.16	Called this shit like I've been doin' it for years.
GhostOfSarcasticBtrd 11.09.16	I mean, holy shit was I right on or was I right on? Jeeeeeesus.
DominionMM1 11.09.16	fffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
DarkSideOfLucca 11.09.16	How did Harambre not win?
magicuba 11.10.16	so what was the final percentage?
magicuba 11.10.16	and where is ma money?
TheGreatQ 11.10.16	8% so toad hit it on the nose
Futures 11.10.16	and me fucker
TheGreatQ 11.11.16	Shit man sorry
Friday13th 11.11.16	lol the mainstream media should fire all the pollsters and hire Toad and Futures
Storm In A Teacup 11.11.16	CNN this morning goes, "does this mean Tim Kaine should become the leader of the Democratic party and run in 2020?" like...go fuck yourselves up the ass and burn in hell...jesus fucking Christ mainstream media still hasn't learned its' lesson AFTER trump has fucking won. dumb fucks with their heads so far up their god damn asses they should be shot instead of fired from their bullshit propaganda cuck job
Futures 11.11.16	tim kaine 2020 hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha oh my god hahahahahhahahahhahahahahha
Maniac! 11.11.16	everyone knows kanye will be potus in 2020
AlexKzillion 11.11.16	Kanye will get the Democratic nomination in 2020 mark my words
Storm In A Teacup 11.11.16	hopefully someone kills Kanye before he can run. someone should have killed trump before he had secret service protection. this sucks
zaruyache 11.11.16	well on the bright side do you really think he'll run for a second term after spending four years pooping on a toilet not made of solid gold? I think he'll do his term then peace the f outta there.
Futures 11.11.16	his ego won't allow him not to run for reelection
Storm In A Teacup 11.11.16	honestly if things go well the first year or two I can see Trump saying "I made America great again so I'm leaving my remaining time in office to Pence, peace!"
BenThatsMyJamin 11.12.16	I did say trump would win a surprising amount of the Latino vote...